Utah State at Air Force preview: How to watch, projected starters, injuries

LOGAN – Utah State’s conference schedule started off with a solid New Year’s Eve win over Fresno State. The Aggies now take on Air Force, a team they played three times last year, twice beating the Falcons by 27 points but also losing on the road to them in late December.

How to watch

  • Tip-off: 7 p.m. MT
  • Location: Clune Arena | Colorado Springs, CO
  • Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
  • Aggie GameDay Coverage on KVNU (102.1 FM/610 AM & KVNU mobile app): 6 p.m. MT
  • KVNU Aggie Call (102.1 FM/610 AM, KVNU mobile app): Immediately after game ends

Injuries

Utah State

No injuries reported

Fresno State

G – Lucas Moerman – OUT (Shoulder)

The sophomore forward/center, who started in each of his first four appearances of the year, suffered a season-ending injury in mid-November.

Projected Starters

Utah State (12-2)

  • G – Rylan Jones (6-0, Jr.) – 4.3 points | 1.2 rebounds | 3.6 assists
  • G – Max Shulga (6-4, Jr.) – 12.4 points | 5.4 rebounds | 4.5 assists
  • G/F – Sean Bairstow (6-8, Sr.) – 10.7 points | 4.3 rebounds | 2.3 assists
  • F – Taylor Funk (6-9, Gr.) – 13.4 points | 6.2 rebounds | 2.0 assists
  • C – Trevin Dorius (7-0, Sr.) – 5.0 points | 3.6 rebounds | 0.4 assists
  • 6th Man – Steven Ashworth (6-1, Jr..) – 17.1 points | 2.6 rebounds | 4.3 assists

Air Force (9-6)

  • G –  Jeffrey Mills (6-4, So.) – 6.6 points | 2.1 rebounds | 3.3 assists
  • G –  Ethan Taylor (6-5, So.) – 7.5 points | 4.1 rebounds | 3.3 assists
  • G –  Camden Vander Zwaag (6-4, Sr.) – 9.0 points | 2.8 rebounds | 1.9 assists
  • G – Jake Heidbreder (6-5, So.) – 15.5 points | 3.1 rebounds | 1.3 assists
  • F –  Corbin Green (6-5, Fr.) – 9.0 points | 4.1 rebounds | 1.9 assists

Team Statistical Ranks

Stats and ratings are from Basketball Reference (except the NET ranking). All ranks are out of 363 Division I teams.

Utah State

  • Pace – 71.6 (78th)
  • Offensive Rating – 115.9 (9th)
  • Defensive Rating – 97.1 (146th)
  • Field Goal % – 49.4 (19th)
  • 3-point % – 43.1 (1st)
  • Rebounding % – 53.9 (57th)
  • NET Rank – 23rd

Air Force

  • Pace – 64.4 (345th)
  • Offensive Rating – 106.3 (136th)
  • Defensive Rating – 97.0  (145th)
  • Field Goal % – 47.3 (65th)
  • 3-point % – 36.6 (75th)
  • Rebounding % – 48.7 (286th)
  • NET Rank – 156th

For a second straight game the Aggies will be facing an opponent eager to slow things down and keep the score as low as possible. The Falcons don’t quite slow the game to the extreme Fresno State does, but this could be another game where Utah State may not reach the 70-75 point range.

“Your offense has to be on it,” USU head coach Ryan Odom said. “They control the game from a pace perspective.”

A key difference between the Bulldogs and the Falcons will be the latter’s efficiency on offense. Air Force is an efficient team, ranking in the top 100 in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.

“They do a really nice job of moving you around and testing your principles,” Odom said. “And certainly they’re shooting a good percentage from three and from two. They’re an efficient basketball team that we’re gonna have to deal with.”

Jake Heidbreder is the most dangerous weapon in Air Force’s arsenal. He’s the leading scorer at 15.5 points per game and is within spitting distance of having 50/40/90 shooting splits as he’s making 49.6 percent of his field goals overall, 41.7 percent of his threes and 88.1 percent of his free throws.

A less well-known name on the Falcons’ roster so far, but one that could prove very dangerous, is wing Rytis Petraitis. The freshman is fresh off winning his second straight Mountain West Freshman of the Week award (his third overall of the year) and is averaging 13.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.0 blocks over his last seven games – all off the bench. In that span, Petraitis has also shot 58 percent from the field and 46 percent from three.

“He’s gonna be a really good player – he is now,” Odom said of Petraitis. “He’s athletic. He can get to the basket. He’s got physical tools on defense as well. He’s aggressive and can block shots. I’m impressed with him.”

One area where Utah State has a huge advantage, literally, is in height. Five of USU’s rotation players stand 6-7 or taller while Air Force has two, and neither are in the starting lineup. The entirety of the Falcons’ starting five is about as tall as the Aggies’ second-shortest starter, Max Shulga (every AFA starter is either 6-4 or 6-5, Shulga is 6-4).

Another difference between these two teams is experience. According to data from KenPom.com, the Falcons rank 312th in roster experience while the Aggies rank 28th.

Not every trend and stat tips in Utah State’s favor. Going on the road to face Air Force can be a tricky thing and many of the current players are very aware of that fact. Last year the Aggies went to Colorado Springs and lost 49-47 in one of the worst offensive performances in the last decade-plus. Utah State may be perfect 15-0 against Air Force at home in it’s whole history, but the Aggies are only 8-7 all-time in road contests with the Falcons.

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