Polling by Utah Debate Commission yields surprising results

SALT LAKE CITY – Polling by the Utah Debate Commission (UDC) to determine participation in its upcoming debates has yielded some surprising results.

The UDC conducts candidate polling prior to its scheduled debates in order to determine which candidates qualify to participate.

According to UDC rules, a candidate “… must reach a polling threshold of 10 percent, taking into account the (poll’s) margin of error.”

The UDC recently polled slightly more than 500 voters in each of Utah’s four congressional districts and statewide for the Senate race.

The margin of error for those surveys averaged about 4.35 percent.

In the 1st Congressional District, incumbent U.S. Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) and Democratic challenger Rick Edwin Jones easily made the cut for the upcoming debate.

As expected, Moore was favored by better than 60 percent of survey respondents.

But Jones came in with 32 percent, a surprisingly strong showing for a political unknown who has barely begun to campaign.

A resident of West Haven in Weber County, Jones said he was mulling a run against state Rep. Mike Schultz (R-Dist.12) when he learned that Moore was likely to run opposed for re-election to Congress.

“I hate to see candidates run unopposed,” he said, especially since he considers Moore to be “…an avid Trump supporter.”

Jones is a former economics professor at Weber State University and now gives piano lessons. He has raised no campaign funds, but still considers himself “a serious candidate.”

His key concerns include fair taxation, climate change and reforming the Electoral College.

Jones acknowledges that his candidacy is a long shot. In the 1st District, Moore beat well-known Democrat Darren Parry by more than 40 points in the 2020 election and former Rep. Rob Bishop (R-UT) won most of his numerous re-election bids by more than 30 points.

The UDC polling results also tended to throw cold water on the super-hot Senate race between incumbent Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) and independent challenger Evan McMullin.

In recent weeks, McMullin’s campaign boasted of internal polling results putting their candidate ahead of Lee by 47 percent to 46 percent.

Lee’s people quickly countered with internal polls that showed the incumbent ahead by 18 points.

According to the recent UDC polls, however, Lee is ahead by a healthy 11-point margin, with the senator at 48 percent versus 37 for McMullin.

The only third-party candidates qualifying to participate in the upcoming UDC debates were Cassie Easley, a Constitution Party hopeful in the 2nd Congressional District; and January Walker, a United Utah candidate in the 4th Congressional District.

Easley barely squeezed into the debate between Rep. Chris Stewart (R-UT) and Democrat Nick Mitchell by polling just 5.71 percent, thanks to help of a 4.36 percent margin of error.

Walker performed a similar hat trick by polling 6.15 percent, also with a 4.36 percent margin of error. She will now participate in the debate between Rep. Burgess Owens (R-UT) and Democrat Darlene McDonald.

The debate between Moore and Jones is slated for 6 p.m. on Oct. 10 at Weber State University in Ogden.

The UDC exchange between Lee and McMullin is scheduled at 6 p.m. on Oct. 17 at Utah Valley University in Orem.

The debate in the 3rd District between Rep. John Curtis (R-UT) and Democrat Glenn Wright will be at Brigham Young University at 6 p.m. on Oct. 6.

The debate in the 4th District between Owens, McDonald and Walker is slated for 6 p.m. on Oct. 12 at the University of Utah.

The debate in the 2nd District between Easley, Mitchell and Stewart is set for 6 p.m. on Oct. 14 at Southern Utah University.

All these debates will be broadcast on multiple television and radio stations throughout Utah.

The  Utah Debate Commission is a consortium of higher education institution, media organizations, business interests and civic leaders dedicated to creating a non-partisan and independent system of debate among qualified candidates for statewide and federal offices in Utah during each election cycle.

The goal of the Utah Debate Commission is to educate voters about viable candidates and their issues, promote the civil exchange of ideas among leading candidates and elevate the discussion of the most important issues confronting all Utahns.

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