GOP gubernatorial race shifting to Coronavirus focus

Recent political polling suggests that Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox (right) may be trailing rival former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. (left) in terms of voter confidence in his ability to manage a crisis situation.

SALT LAKE CITY – There’s an old adage that says “familiarity breeds contempt.”

Utah political pundits are wondering if the gubernatorial campaign of Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox is running headlong into that problem due to his participation in numerous recent press conferences related to the Coronavirus crisis.

Early rounds of voter polling in the crowded Republican race to replace outgoing Gov. Gary Herbert had Cox running neck-and-neck with his most serious rival, former Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr.

A survey conducted in late March for The Deseret News and The Hinckley Institute of Politics, for example, showed the candidates in a statistical dead heat. That polling found that 26 percent of likely voters said they preferred Huntsman to 24 percent for Cox, with a margin of error of 5.4 percent.

But in more recent polling from mid-April, 26 percent of likely voters preferred Huntsman, compared to 13 percent for Cox.

Part of the problem for the lieutenant governor is that the primary focus of statewide polling has moved away from mere likability (where the rival candidates’ standings remain unchanged) into the realm of crisis management.

In the mid-April survey, pollster Scott Rasmussen asked nearly 1,000 Utah voters “which candidate for Utah governor would you trust most to lead in time of crisis?”

The fact that nearly twice as many voters named Huntsman in responding to that question is undoubtedly perplexing to managers of the Cox campaign for several reasons.

The first of those concerns is that the polling’s shift of focus to crisis management is certainly valid. Huntsman and Cox have both already qualified for the GOP primary ballot by gathering 28,000 voter signatures each. So, they will be battling for the Republican nomination between now and June 30, while Utah is struggling to restart its previously vibrant economy following the Coronavirus shutdown. That process is likely to continue well into the term of the next governor.

Secondly, Cox is already leading the statewide task force that is responding to the Coronavirus outbreak. Is that role actually adversely impacting his image as a crisis manager?

Finally, the Cox campaign managers must be wondering exactly what Huntsman has ever done to earn the confidence of voters in terms of crisis management. As darkhorse gubernatorial candidate Jeff Burningham has pointed out, the former governor resigned his office in 2009 just as Utah and the rest of the country were sliding into a deep recession due to the real estate housing market collapse.

One bright spot for the Cox campaign is that at least a third of all Utah voters remain undecided in all recent polling for the governor’s race.

Another positive spin on the recent survey results for the Cox campaign is that they will likely have no impact on the outcome of the GOP state nominating convention this weekend, because the polling measured voters’ opinions rather than those of the pre-selected Republican delegates to that virtual gathering.

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