LOGAN – Tuesday’s mid-day report from the Bear River Health District’s three-county area revealed one new COVID-19 case, an individual 60+ years old in Cache County, not currently hospitalized and contracted through community spread. That individual is now isolated at home.
That means there are now 34 total cases, including 23 positives in Cache and 11 positives in Box Elder. There are no cases in Rich County.
“In spite of a situation or two where there was significant risk of exposure,” said BRHD Executive Director Lloyd Berentzen, “I consider our three county area to be very fortunate at this point.”
Berentzen said he follows modeling, or statistical projections, done by both the University of Utah and the University of Washington. He said the earliest estimates from UW indicated there would be close to a thousand deaths from COVID-19 in Utah. A later model estimated about 600 Utah deaths.
He said the latest report indicates a drastically lower number of projected COVID-19 deaths.
“In the last week, and it’s really because of a lot of the things that have gone on, that same model now is showing anywhere from 186 to 320 deaths in the state of Utah. Not that you ever think any amount of death is good news, but the fact that there’s such a significant reduction in that modeling in what we anticipated, is excellent news.”
He attributes that to schools closing, churches not congregating, canceling large entertainment and sporting events that have kept people from crowding together, plus the cooperation of the business community including big box stores instituting innovative ways of doing business, while continuing to practice social distancing.
“If this holds true, and we continue to suppress this curve, by the time we get to about the 23rd of April — which we anticipate to be the height of the curve — and we suppress it that much, this is just amazing news.”
Statewide, there were 63 new cases reported on Tuesday and nearly 35,000 people have been tested.